New Poll: Minnesota Gay Marriage Ban in Tight Race

Minnesotans United for All Families

Public Policy Polling (PPP) has released a new poll on Minnesota’s amendment to ban gay marriage and finds the issue running slightly behind, with 46% of voters planning to support it and 49% opposed. That represents a 4 point shift compared to a month ago when it led for passage 48-47.

The movement over the last month has been with independent voters. Where they supported the amendment 51/42 in September, they’ve now almost flipped and oppose it by a 52/42 margin. Women (43/51) are stronger in their opposition to it than men (49/47) are in their support. Most of the margin against the amendment is being provided by younger voters who say they plan to vote against it 53/38.

In general 47% of voters in the state say they support gay marriage to 43% who are opposed. And 74% of voters, including even 52% of Republicans, support some form of legal recognition for gay couples either in the form of marriage or civil unions.

Things are starting to get interesting with Minnesota’s voter ID amendment. In June it was leading for passage by a 58/34 margin. By September that had tightened to a 56/39 advantage. And now it’s leading only 51/43. Democrats are now even more opposed to the voter ID amendment (23/71) than they are to the one on marriage. And although independents continue to support it their 52/41 favor for it is down a good deal from 62/33 a month ago. This fight may end up a lot closer than people initially expected.

Democrats have a 52/40 advantage on the generic legislative ballot, including a 48/34 lead with independents. It’s always hard to say exactly what a generic ballot translates to in terms of seats gained, but that should lead to a pretty healthy number of pick ups for the Democrats.

Mark Dayton continues to be one of the more popular Governors in the country with a 53% approval rating to 33% of voters who disapprove of him. He leads a generic Republican foe for reelection in 2014 by a 52/35 margin, including 46/26 with independents.

Al Franken continues to post solid approval numbers with 49% of voters approving of him to 38% who disapprove. He leads a generic Republican foe 50-38. Tim Pawlenty (trails Franken 51-42 in a hypothetical) and Norm Coleman (trails Franken 51-41) both do slightly better than a generic GOPer. Michele Bachmann, whose statewide favorability is 33/55, does much worse and trails Franken 55-37.

Finally PPP looked at how Minnesota voters feel about a former major statewide figure (Jesse Ventura) and a potential future one (R.T. Rybak). Ventura is unpopular with 29% of voters rating him favorably to 53% with a negative opinion. He is unpopular with Democrats (34/46), independents (32/49), and Republicans (18/67) alike. Rybak is seen favorably by 38% of voters with 22% holding an unfavorable opinion and 40% not having one one way or another.

Full results here.

Source: Public Policy Polling

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